Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.061189 0.070117 0.080186 0.092440 0.107026 0.123928 0.145131
2025-11-23 0.048398 0.059428 0.072966 0.091003 0.114703 0.145211 0.188153
2025-11-30 0.040200 0.052401 0.068528 0.091844 0.125439 0.173293 0.248892
2025-12-07 0.033799 0.046459 0.064350 0.092251 0.136136 0.205200 0.327986
2025-12-14 0.028005 0.040303 0.058728 0.089478 0.141914 0.232631 0.413869
2025-12-21 0.022440 0.033517 0.050926 0.081675 0.137861 0.243518 0.478348
2025-12-28 0.019512 0.030302 0.048143 0.081645 0.147728 0.284359 0.628811
2026-01-04 0.017428 0.028102 0.046643 0.083644 0.162536 0.342717 0.864198
2026-01-11 0.015481 0.025810 0.044565 0.084135 0.174888 0.403084 1.162461
2026-01-18 0.013822 0.023759 0.042555 0.084347 0.187157 0.471531 1.565373
2026-01-25 0.012175 0.021473 0.039682 0.082040 0.192885 0.527143 2.002235
2026-02-01 0.010646 0.019189 0.036421 0.078096 0.193230 0.568499 2.452817
2026-02-08 0.009694 0.017931 0.035147 0.078805 0.207816 0.672217 3.444519
2026-02-15 0.008829 0.016724 0.033774 0.078979 0.221455 0.787158 4.833093
2026-02-22 0.008185 0.015883 0.033079 0.080836 0.242053 0.955026 7.254699
2026-03-01 0.007584 0.015048 0.032248 0.082146 0.262049 1.147423 10.938756
2026-03-08 0.006901 0.013936 0.030557 0.080505 0.270626 1.295266 15.188893
2026-03-15 0.006079 0.012408 0.027588 0.074200 0.257705 1.305463 17.590497
2026-03-22 0.005665 0.011771 0.026793 0.074647 0.274316 1.536936 26.893468
2026-03-29 0.005365 0.011364 0.026535 0.076843 0.300800 1.894004 46.053580
2026-04-05 0.005039 0.010852 0.025907 0.077620 0.321576 2.257162 76.774799
2026-04-12 0.004735 0.010355 0.025236 0.078088 0.341715 2.673228 131.440048
2026-04-19 0.004385 0.009703 0.024024 0.076205 0.348075 2.971952 202.447464